If you want snow on Christmas, you will probably have to make your own. More than a week ago, we started discussing the chance for colder air around Christmas. With each model run, confidence is increasing that will be the case. How cold? The data suggests this will come from the arctic which means it should be quite cold and especially dry. PERFECT snow making conditions if you have your own snow machine from Snow At Home. :)
A deep trough will dive into the central United States Wednesday with rain showers, followed by a strong northerly wind ushering in the chill. Any hope for real snow from Mother Nature? The only way I see that happening is through embedded disturbances in the northern flow aloft. They are extremely moisture starved, but cold arctic air can squeeze flurries out of it. However, at this time, the only chance for that may be just north and east of the state. It's worth watching, but I would say the chance is slim to none.
Let's look at temperatures from the models. Remember, these are NOT forecasts.
In house model at KATV high temperatures
In house model at KATV low temperatures
In order to make snow, you must have temperatures below 28° and it really helps if the air is super dry. That may be the case Christmas Eve night and morning for several hours.
Look at the forecast dew points from the Euro on weatherbell.com. This is chapstick weather
All video and pictures were from 3 years ago using the SnowPro.