Winter Weather. The Chance Is Real
It's still several days out, but the models continue to point towards a significant winter weather event, ESPECIALLY for northern Arkansas. How significant? Tough to say at this time, but this set-up and time of year is ideal for this to happen.
While timing can change, I expect the chance Friday into Saturday. Obviously, confidence is greater for northern Arkansas, but I would not be surprised to see the models come back colder and colder further south. As always, the models struggle with resolving the magnitude and extend of cold air. With arctic air, 99 out of 100 times, it's further south than the models suggest.
Keep in mind, our biggest winter weather events occur when cold air is already established. If it's coming during the event, it can still happen, but the significance can be lessened. Hope that makes sense. Colder air looks more established across the north. It can get held up if it's too shallow across the Ozarks and that can slow down the southward push. There are still so many factors to consider and details to resolve. I wanted to get this blog post out there since both the GFS and Euro are singing the same song right now. In case you're wondering, that song is "It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas."
Beyond this event, I see warm air pushing back, and yes, thunderstorms. More on that at a much later time.