Winter To Spring This Week

As we have been saying at Channel 7 over the past several days, this is going to be a cold rain for most of us, but northern Arkansas could have a few issues with freezing rain/sleet for awhile Tuesday. The NAM continues to show it starting as ice, then changing quickly to a cold rain even into central Arkansas and that scenario must be watched. As stated in the previous blog post, that's the worst case scenario and it would have icing in trees and elevated objects for a little while, then a miserable cold rain with temperatures around 33-35 degrees. This round of rain Tuesday will bring a flooding potential, especially to eastern Arkansas and river levels may rise.

More rain will be possible Thursday evening into Friday, then more rain and THUNDERSTORMS Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has already outline the entire state with a risk for some severe weather. While this is possible, we must wait to see how this all plays out. I really have little faith in model guidance past 3 days. Timing, track, and what kind of instability is present are questions we will not have a firm handle on for a few more days.

There's a good chance for at least .1'' of freezing rain across the higher elevations of northern Arkansas Tuesday. This has happened numerous times this winter hasn't it? A winter weather advisory may be needed for that area of the state.

7 day rainfall totals are quite high over the delta where more than 5'' could fall. With the ground saturated and vegetation dormant, run-off will be an issue. Flash flooding will be possible and river flooding will be enhanced.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Arkansas in a risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday. While this is plausible, I want to see what the timing, track, and instability levels look like by mid-week. This will likely change. Nevertheless, we must watch this!