Winter Storm Likely
The models are trending colder! That's no surprise to blog readers! While there are no guarantees in weather until after it happens, I feel good about where we are with this forecast. I don't feel good about what's going to happen though. I love winter and I love snow. I do NOT like freezing rain and ice. It's terrible!
As the models trend colder, it's very possible sleet will be the predominate precipitation type for much of northern and central Arkansas. That means freezing rain would be more of an issue over southern Arkansas.
Look at the evolution of the North American Model over the past 4 cycles. This is another classic example why you can't go off a model run. It's useful to look at trends and the trend is colder! The NAM usually leads the way in these situations dealing with arctic air.
Blue snow, orange sleet, pink freezing rain, and green rain. For freezing rain, you have to have shallow arctic air. Once the cold air gets deeper, you get into sleet then snow.
NAM Monday morning.
NAM Monday afternoon. Going further south with the frozen precip because it's catching onto the cold
Monday evening run of the NAM even colder
Early Tuesday run even colder
Look at the drastic change in 1 day! The NAM is finally seeing the cold arctic air going round the Ozarks on a north-northeast wind right down the Delta. Are we done with the correction of the models? Not yet, but I think it's close to where I envisioned this. IF this plays out the way the models are trending, I think more snow and sleet northern and central Arkansas. Freezing rain may be an issue over southern and far eastern Arkansas.
A winter storm watch is in effect as of Tuesday morning for the northern 2/3 of Arkansas. An upgrade to a winter storm warning seems likely with a few counties in an ice storm warning. Ice storm warnings are issued for amounts of freezing rain .25'' or more. The most likely area will be south and east, but not set in stone just yet.
Bottom line summary... This is going to what I envisioned and how a system like this behaves, but I'm sure it will throw a few curveballs too. That's the weather. More adjustments will be made. I expect this all to begin Wednesday night into Thursday and central Arkansas likely to go below freezing before sunrise Thursday.
As always, thanks loyal readers and thanks for trusting KATV Channel 7, the team with the most experience!