There are strong signals a return to cold is on the way. This week will be cooler, but STILL above average. The 2nd week of January should be colder with an active weather pattern emerging. That does not mean snow, but it's that time of year and the models do have a system to watch around the 6th and/or the 7th. You know my usual disclaimer! It's in the long range and will change.
Remember the main factors in determining winter weather in Arkansas: storm track and temperature as the storm arrives.
A southern storm track allows cold air to push further south and increasing the chance for wintry weather. A northern track exposes the state to warmer Gulf of Mexico air. Also, we get our biggest snows when subfreezing air is place BEFORE the precip arrives. If the air is still above freezing as the moisture arrives, it can still snow, but amounts are typically reduced.
Once again, I'M NOT SAYING SNOW IS ON THE WAY, but there is a system to watch the 2nd week of January with signals favoring colder air getting into the United States and as far south as Arkansas.
A couple side notes. As of early Sunday morning, our yearly rain total is 60.41'' with a little more rain expected today. We'll likely end 2019 in the top 25 wettest years in recorded weather history.
Also, you can read about the top 7 weather events of the decade in previous blog posts. I'll have a few honorable mentions soon.