Winter Outlook Thoughts

Today, Thursday, NOAA released their winter outlook. This post is not intended to dispute it, but to show you why you should approach it with caution.

A typical La Nina.

NOAA winter outlook for 2020-2021

New winter outlook for winter 2021-2021

Do all these look familiar? It's important to note, no two La Ninas are alike.

Look what last winter looked like in reality.

It's the complete opposite of the outlook. Why? It took only a week or so to completely bust the outlook with the extreme cold in February.

We must remember these are just outlooks and it appears mostly based on the La Nina. There are other drivers in the atmosphere that can abruptly change our weather. Again, I'm not trying to say their outlook is wrong, but perspective is needed.