Winter Not Leaving Without A Fight

It's a favorable pattern for wintry weather in our region, but there are still many questions needing to be answered and I'm extremely skeptical. Is this a classic example of the boy who cried wolf? The models have time and time again projected a favorable pattern for wintry weather in the long range. Then as we get within 3-5 days, it all goes wrong. At some point, it has to happen, right?

This would be the first winter since 2008 without measurable snow if nothing happened through the end of the month in Little Rock. However, I will never forget what followed March 4th and 7th of 2008. Those 2 huge snows satisfied many snow lovers across the state. The first brought almost a foot to Pope county with lighter amounts into central Arkansas. The storm on the 7th brought a few inches to central Arkansas with up to 10'' in southeast Arkansas. It was wild!

While the pattern is favorable for moisture and cold air meeting up, there are still way too many uncertainties to iron out.

- How cold?

- The exact track of any storms?

- How much moisture will they bring?

- What will temperature profiles look like if moisture and cold do come together? This determines rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain.

The bottom line, there's hope for snow lovers. It's not like we have a huge ridge of high pressure sitting over us and unseasonably mild weather next week. ALTHOUGH, the models have shown winter weather this in the long range, then once we get into the time period, we have highs in the 70s. See why I'm skeptical?

Cold will be pressing southward out of Canada next week with warm air shunted to the far southeast U.S. The storm track (jet stream) will have a trough west. This should send disturbances through the region with a very active pattern. Tracks are very important! Also, how much cold air can make it into Arkansas? Those a huge questions which still needs to be ironed out. Also, what about the depth of any cold air? These are details which can not be sorted out until late this week into the weekend.

NOAA's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook really illustrate the upcoming pattern. Cold west and central with milder air southeast. The battle zone is in between with a very active pattern and a good chance for above average precip.

The following maps are courtesy of Pivotal Weather. Great site if you get a chance to check it out.