Winter Fights Back.

I can't promise snow, but as I said last week, there's something to watch. Winter will not go down without a fight and we have one this week and beyond.

After a big warm up Monday, temperatures will settle down back to reality Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A strong area of high pressure will ease out of Canada and bring a favorable wind for winter weather in Arkansas. An east to northeast wind is ONE of the needed ingredients. The models have suppressed most of the moisture south as dry air settles into the Natural State. The models are continuing to show a BRIEF and LIGHT push of moisture late Wednesday into early Thursday. Temperatures will be marginal. At this time, I do not expect an impactful event.

The following are model snapshots courtesy of WeatherBell. Remember, these are models and NOT forecasts.

The 18Z run of the NAM Sunday only goes out to midnight Thursday. Strong high over Iowa bringing in chilly surface temperatures. Moisture is overrunning that colder air.

The 18Z run of the Euro shows the set up nicely. A strong high over Iowa funneling in an ENE wind over the state. At the same time, moisture overruns the cold air at the surface. The problem is the dry air. Will any of this precip make it to the ground? If it does, I expect it to be light and brief. Also, A little sleet would not surprise me.

The Canadian valid Thursday morning has an even stronger area of high pressure over eastern Nebraska with quite a bit of moisture in the cold air. This model typically overdoes the moisture, but it does show the possibility and it does show that chance for sleet in orange. Once again, anything will be light and brief as this quickly moves east.

And finally the GFS which promises snow ALL...THE... TIME. However, it is similar to other models and has been quite stubborn with the wintry weather.

SUMMARY, some wintry weather will be possible late Wednesday into early Thursday. There are a few limiting factors for anything significant.

• Dry air

• Marginal temperatures

• Fast flow aloft means this will fly through quickly limiting the time of any precipitation chance.

• Anything that fall will be light if it can even reach the ground.

Beyond this week, guidance shows a powerful trough dropping into the western United States then moving East-Northeast around February 25th/26th. This has the potential to be a big weather maker with rain and storms most likely for our region and BIG snows north and west of Arkansas. We'll pin down the details as we get closer.

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