Winter Fights Back
Yes, there will be at least some chance for wintry weather this week, but I once again urge extreme caution!
It's hard to believe we would go the entire winter without something happening. Outside of the Ozarks, December and January have been uneventful in terms of winter weather.
Temperatures will reach the 70s Sunday, then strong to perhaps severe storms Tuesday (south). Typical Arkansas! This should be no surprise as we have been mentioning this weather pendulum since early last week. Here we go!
Confidence in winter weather in Arkansas is greater than knowing where it will exactly occur. It all depends on track. It's entirely possible we're looking at a situation where the Ozarks block the air cold enough to support winter weather. It all depends on the track of the system and the manner in which it moves through. If the track is north, it will deliver a cold rain to most of the state. 33° and rain seems to be our motto over the past couple years.
If the track is further south, it allows colder air to push south with more widespread wintry weather. The only model showing that is the GFS. Sadly, this is a typical known bias of the model. It's too cold and too snowy most of the time. However, I have been impressed with it this winter, but we haven't had any real winter weather to test it around here.
Also, it's worth mentioning, the Euro is spitting out a little light snow Thursday as the upper dynamics move across the state.
I'll explain everything with a few model snapshots below from WeatherBell.com. IMO, the best site on the web for model data!!!
Thur Euro valid Wednesday afternoon has the surface low over southern Arkansas. This is too far north for any meaningful winter weather. The swath of snow would be north and west of the state in the deeper cold air. This would also keep the coldest of the air bottled up around the Ozarks until AFTER the low moves away.
Euro Temperatures Wednesday afternoon has a wide range across the state. You can really see how the Ozarks keep that air cold enough to support wintry weather away from much of the state.
Then there's the GFS. The surface low is MUCH further south bringing in the cold air and a small area of wintry weather right though the state.
With the low further south, it's much colder across the state.
The Canadian has the low south, but too far north for anything across much of the Channel 7 viewing area. The far north would have the highest chance according to this model.
The NAM in this time period is a little whacky at times, but does show a decent set up , especially north and west.
Back to the Euro Thursday. As the upper level dynamics move through, it's showing light snow across the northern portions of Arkansas.
We need to see how far south the cold air makes it and where the surface low tracks. Also, does this thing come out in pieces or one significant low? I can envision either of these happening. It's too early to get specific, especially with amounts. My gut tells me snow lovers will not be happy. Let me explain.
First, this has been a terrible winter for fans of snow. However, it has to change at some point, right? I'm concerned the air will be too warm to support wintry weather for much of us. The push of cold air is significant, but I'm not impressed with the magnitude of cold air coming south. It will be a noticeable change though. We're going from 70s Sunday to winter time! But, that's how you "Arkansas".
As always, thanks for your time and trust!