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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Winter Ain't Over

We have seen 2 significant snow/ice events so far this cold season. Notice I didn't say winter because one of those events occurred in November. Several inches of snow fell across southeast through eastern Arkansas with a few flakes further west and some light accumulations even into the metro.

The 2nd event occurred in early December. I remember stressing over and over a cold rain was all central Arkansas would see. Northern Arkansas did have a few inches of snow in spots, but the bigger story was the ice storm in northeastern Arkansas from White county over to Mississippi county.

Since then, winter has left the building. Some are even calling this a "January Thaw", which IMO is incorrect. You must have cold weather to thaw out from and it has been almost a month since it was darn cold! This is just a continuation of a mild December which ended up a bit more than a degree above average.

By the end of the week, we may find ourself in a very similar marginal situation. It will be cold, but not cold enough to produce winter weather of much significance. I'm sure social media will be abuzz about a late week potential. The Euro shows snow for the northern half, but surface temperatures are above freezing. The GFS suppresses the wave of moisture. Surprise, right? It did that with the last system and we had at least a couple inches of rain.

The Canadian also shows a similar set up to the Euro. A cold rain with a mix north. I have looked at a vertical slice of the atmosphere in this time range and the lowest level is near or above freezing. It's for this reason, I can't get excited about it. There will be a strong Canadian high nosing into the area bringing cold air. If it's stronger with colder air, then maybe something. You are probably sick and tired of hearing me and others say something like this, "It's too early and much can change. Stay tuned." Who tunes in anyway? Tuning was something done with those old black and white TV sets from the 1950s. LOL.

The point of this post is to simply say winter is far from over. It only takes 1 big snow to change the perception of winter. December 2012 (the Christmas blizzard) was a terrible winter, right? That month was almost 5 degrees above average and that's MUCH warmer than anything we have experienced this winter so far.

There is hope and there's plenty of winter to go, so STAY TUNED! :)

The OOZ Sunday run of the Euro. Light rain covers up the state late Friday. It you look at the forecast precip types, it shows snow and ice. However, the surface temperatures are well above freezing and in the mid and upper 30s. Cold, yes, but not cold enough for me to jump on this as something significant. The 540 thickness line (blue solid line) is even displaced well to the north. This is usually a good indicator of the rain/snow line. I would not be surprised if there was some sort of mix near the Missouri border and in the higher elevations. I'll keep you updated.

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