Wild Weather Weekend

2 seasons in 1 weekend! That's typical around here this time of year. We'll start Saturday off with rain and mild temperatures, but by the afternoon and evening, temperatures tank with strong winds!

Wind chill values when you wake up Sunday morning will be in the teens and single digits. Nothing extreme for January, but this will be a bit of a shock.

What about snow late Saturday? Once again, I go back to my old rule. You must have cold air in place before the precip moves into your area. Also, you can still get wintry weather as the cold air catches up to whatever moisture remains and it can still cause problems, but these don't amount to big storms. With all that said, snowflakes will likely fly across northern Arkansas. How far south? Well, that depends on the model you look at. The Euro is the most aggressive with the CMC and GFS similar.

I'm not going to put out snowfall accumulation forecasts at this point, but I will show you the models and the differences between them.

The more I look at all the guidance in the long range, the more I think this weekend cold is just a tease for what arrives in 10 days or so. The cold will get even bolder to end the month and it should last into the beginning of February.

The Euro (below) is going gangbusters with snow and I'm not believing it completely. I think it's showing us who will see flakes fly, but these amounts are just not believable at this time. I think the heavy snow will be up into Missouri.

The GFS has been wonky lately too, but I believe the greatest chance for LIGHT accumulations will be northern Arkansas, especially the mountains.

The GFS ensemble mean has a decent handle on this. Flurries and snow showers possible with little to no accumulation. Some accumulation in the higher elevations of northern Arkansas.

Again, my disclaimer.... THIS CAN CHANGE. IT'S NOT SET IN STONE. STAY TUNED. BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH.

The late month 500mb GPH ensemble mean from the GEFS. Big time blocking over Canada with a trough underneath into the United States. THIS IS COLD! Again, I'm beginning to think this weekend is just a small tease for what's coming down the road.

In summary... Rain will get underway late Friday and last through Saturday. Temperatures will tumble Saturday afternoon from west to east with strong winds developing. While flurries and snow showers could be seen across the northern half of the state, any accumulation will be confined to the north, especially the higher elevations. If this changes, I'll let you know.

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