❄️Wild Model Runs❄️
The models have called for big snows in Arkansas at least a few dozen times over the past few years. In reality, 33° and rain or blowtorch temperatures seem to be the end result. Is this time any different?
Before I get into that, it's worth pointing out what the Arkansas Weather Blog is all about. This has been a place weather enthusiasts in Arkansas get the inside scoop into what formulates a forecast. Over the past 15 years, it's the behind the scenes look into forecasting you can't get anywhere else. I will post model guidance and it should always be assumed these are NOT forecasts.
The pattern this upcoming week is a wild one to say the least. Massive amplification of the jet stream and strong lows cutting off does not lend itself to a high confidence forecast. The GFS, which will show several feet of snow in the long range in the middle of summer (I exaggerate a little) is typically laughed at in the long range. The Euro is usually the voice of reason, but it has issues too. No model is perfect. 2 of the last 3 Euro runs have dropped jaws in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and even Arkansas. It cuts off a massive low, draws moisture into the cold air and pumps out cough, cough, cough, cough, snow.
Let's look at 500mb on both models. First the GFS.
This is valid noon next Friday. That's a heck of an upper low with the center along the Kansas/Missouri state line. This would send the bulk of any moisture a little east of the state. Let me remind you, forecasting the position of a cut off low in the medium or long range has can have massive errors which can drastically alter a forecast.
The same low is strong, cut off, and further south. This would bring meaningful snow to Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. I've said it once and I'll say it again, forecasting these in the long range is not the easiest thing in the world. Getting snow around here over the past few years has proven difficult. Eventually it will happen. Will late next week be the time? Stay with KATV Channel 7.