Where Is the Cold Air?

We are 1 month into meteorological winter with snow and cold weather nowhere to be found, except Oklahoma today ( Thursday). We had more snow in November than this winter so far. If you hate winter, you're loving this. For cold weather fans, there's still plenty of time for cold and snow. Remember, be careful of what you ask for around here! Last May we were in a serious drought, then the rain would not stop falling. We ended 2018 as one of the wettest in history.

There are conflicting signals in the long range I wanted to share with you. At this time, the next 7 days should be well above average and that will likely extend even further into mid January. The Euro is sending a very cold shot of air around day 9-10, but I question how strong and how long it will last. Could there be a shot of cold air? Absolutely, but I don't think it will be anything unusual or long lasting.

I'm going to use the GFS ensembles here because I'm not allowed to post the Euro, but I'll tell you what they show.

See the blue over the eastern Pacific and western United States. That's troughing and it's blasting the country with mild Pacific air. The Rockies are enjoying snow and skiers are loving it. Once it gets east of the Rockies, mild weather rules.

Below is the GFS ensemble around mid January. It's completely different! The troughing over the eastern Pacific is replaced with ridging. This would change the source region of our air masses. They would come in from Alaska and Canada. Obviously, much colder. This model has been consistent showing this scenario.

Like I said, I can't show the Euro, but it does NOT indicate cold weather until much later in the month. It keeps troughing in the eastern Pacific and floods the country with mild, Pacific air.

NOAA's 8-14 day guidance January 10-14 indicates temperatures will be above average. This does NOT say warm. We are at our coldest time of year according to the averages. I think cool to mild would be the best way to describe it. Also, precip should be above average. Surprise, right?

In late December, NOAA released their 3-4 week outlook valid January 12-25. We know it will likely stay mild through the middle of the month. They indicate a good chance for below average temps over the eastern U.S and possibly Arkansas. If this happens, it won't be until after the 15th, IMO.

In summary, winter ain't over. However, it's not in a rush to get going either. Be careful with what you ask for around here and you just might get it.

Remember that story from some east coast newspaper last month hyping the polar vortex coming to kick off January? Yet another reason to stay with Channel 7 and local weather.