When Will We Reach 90°? A Record Possible!
Records are made to be broken! June 20th is the latest recorded 90° temperature in Little Rock. We gave it a good run back in 2017 and we're going to do it again this year too. Will we get there? It will be a tough road ahead to break this 111 year old record.
It's very possible to break into the top 20 as you can tell by the list below. Let me simplify it for you. I don't see much of a chance to reach 90 by next Friday, June 11th. That will put us at the 13th latest 90° day.
If we make it through the weekend of June 12th and 13th, which will be difficult, it will be the 9th latest on record and that will tie 2017.
June 15th - 8th latest
June 16th -6th latest
June 17th - 5th latest
June 18th - 4th latest
June 19th - 3rd latest
June 20th - RECORD TIED WITH 1910 AND 1903
What do the models say as of Friday morning June 4th? There will be a ridge of high pressure to monitor late next week. It will likely be centered west of the state. If it stays far enough to the west, it will allow for a northwesterly wind flow with rain/storm chances continuing. The chance for breaking the record increases.
If the ridge nudges east into the area, it will deflect rain chances away from the state and we hit 90. It will be interesting to watch.
Let's go to the model numbers.
I'll use the European operational first. Little to no chance through the 13th.
The European ensemble average. This can be a little tricky, especially far out, but it does give hope for breaking the record.
A snapshot at 360 hours, June 18th at 7PM shows a low chance of the max temperature of 90 degrees. Remember, by 7PM we're cooling down, but this map does show the core of the warmth likely west of the state.
A snapshot of the GFS ensemble at 1PM June 19th shows a little greater chance of us reaching 90 at that moment.
Bottom line... records are made to be broken, but this one will be tough. Top 20 or top 10? Very possible. We'll have to wait and see what that ridge will do late next week. No matter how you look at it though, the forecast for no early season extreme heat is working out quite well.