Over the past few years, the models have produced more wintry weather than Arkansas has seen in state history. In reality, we're in a snow drought.
At this time, it's the European against the rest of the world next weekend. Since it's the Euro and not far off in the long range, it might have a little bit of credibility. However, it's another one of those big closed lows which are difficult to forecast. Yesterday, it cranked out snow well east of Arkansas. Now, it's cranking it out a little closer to the state. A few more model runs and it will east again, right?
To understand what we're dealing with, let's go upstairs to the 500mb level which is about 20 thousand feet.
The GFS has the trough, but it's open and flat over the central U.S late Sunday. This would bring a few clouds, but likely little if any moisture.
The Euro wants to bundle it all into a strong upper low over the mid south late Sunday into early Monday. This is midnight Monday morning and would be in a favorable position to produce something wintry just east of the state.
This is about the same time on the Euro run Tuesday morning.
It's in a slightly different location producing wintry weather well east of the state.
It's the Euro against the rest of the world. If it was the GFS vs the rest of the world, I wouldn't even write this post.
Once again, we're in that "what if" situation. This will have to line up just right to change our forecast. Will it be closed off and in a good position to produce something or will it be fast and open producing a few clouds? As you can probably tell, I'm not optimistic, but I'm glad I have something to look at and say "what if" instead of "no way".