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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Weird Way To Get Snow

I'm going to be completely honest. This is a strange way to get snow around here. Guidance keeps pointing towards the rain changing to snow before ending. Typically, you see a system get wound up with heavy rain, the cold air pour in, then the upper level dynamics shift into place, and rain changes to snow. This time, it has the cold air catching up to the back of the precip shield and changing a narrow area from rain to sleet/snow. This scenario makes me skeptical, however, it's hard to argue with a chorus of computer models indicating this happens Wednesday morning. Here are the key points at this time.

1) Rain will be likely Tuesday PM into Wednesday morning.

2) winds will howl as the cold air pushes into the state

3) temperatures should stay above freezing

4) if there's a change to snow/sleet, it will not last long at all

5) even if temperatures drop to freezing Wednesday morning, they should rebound well above freezing by the afternoon.

6) Little if any accumulation is expected due to a wet ground and marginal temperatures. Any accumulation will be confined to grassy surfaces and elevated objects. If will rapidly melt.

7) I can see this being a situation like Saturday where we have a quick burst of snow, but nothing accumulates.

As the rain comes to an end, the Euro wants to change it over to a mix of snow/sleet in a narrow area along the backside. The blue line is the 32 degree line. Whatever happens will be of short duration.

GFS similar

RPM will pay catch-up as usual by Tuesday.

GFS amounts very low if any. Mainly on grassy surfaces IF it happens

Euro similar, but a little bit northwest compared to GFS with a swatch of light accumulations.

In summary, I have doubts about accumulations, but if they do occur, it will melt rapidly. Most of this will be rain, but on the backside a little something may occur. If it does happen, don't panic. It will not last long at all and temps will go well above freezing as soon as the precip ends.

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