Wild swings still in the models today! This will be a quick update with more later today.
Notice all my posts this week have "?" after them. I continue to question the magnitude of the cold due to the teleconnective indexes I wrote about in the previous blog. The timing of any moisture is in question too.
Here's a brief summary of the newest model runs.
Euro - went from a temperature of 37° at 6AM Sunday to 63° on the newest run. That's NOT a typo. It develops a significant wave along the boundary and holds it just north of the metro until later in the day. It went from a major snowstorm to THUNDERSTORMS with just a few model runs. This is exactly why I urged caution with this system and this batch of cold air. However, it's just one model run and we'll see what it does today and tomorrow. But, WOW!
GFS - had rain/wintry weather Saturday with barely anything Sunday lately. Now, it has the moisture Sunday. It's a cold rain with some wintry weather north and just like the past 10 systems in Arkansas this winter.
CMC - Rain Sunday with a wintry mix central and north, but the CMC has a cold bias anyway.
Again, this is quick update and I'll have more later today.