Watching Wednesday

Rain and storms will be likely Wednesday. The potential for heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms will exist over much of Arkansas, but the models continue to come back with limited instability. I believe there will be more than what the models are predicting right now given the magnitude of the storm and the deep fetch of moisture coming off the Gulf of Mexico. I hope I'm wrong. After Wednesday, severe weather chances will shut down for awhile as we go into a colder weather pattern. I have a feeling severe weather chances will ramp up once again by the end of the month into the very beginning of April.

Wednesday morning, a very strong upper low is kicking out of the southwest United States. This will have a negative tilt meaning it's oriented from northwest to southeast. This increases some of the severe weather parameters.

Instability values are almost non-existent according to the global models. The only instability is across far southern Arkansas into east Texas and Louisiana. I have a feeling they are wrong and instability will be further north.

Spring Break week, cold overwhelms much of the central and eastern United States. This will shut down severe weather chances for a little while and allow us to dry out!