Want Snow? There's Real Hope
With arctic air in place, anything can happen! While I don't have much confidence in long range modeling, this may be a bit different. Cold air will already be in place and there's remarkable agreement with the guidance we use. It's way too early to speculate about exact amounts. We must also remember, ice will still be possible with arctic air in place. However, the arctic air will be deeper at that point and snow/sleet would be more of a concern.
Timing? Too early, but much of the data says Monday. That can and will likely be adjusted as we get closer.
The Euro ensembles show a good chance for at least 1'' of snow for the 24 hour period from Monday morning to Tuesday morning. The greatest chance is the northwest half of the state.
Remember, models are NOT forecasts.
The chance for 3'' or more decreases, but for ensembles to see this in the long range is interesting.
Most of the ensemble members see snow Monday and MAYBE something by the middle of next week too.
WPC has a high chance for at least .25'' water equivalent of snow/sleet next Monday.
If temperatures are as cold as advertised, then we're talking about higher than normal snowfall ratios. That just means it takes less water to produce higher snow amounts. It's a function of the cold air. I'll have more about that later.
So there is hope, but don't get your hopes up too high. You know how these things can go in the long range.