Want Cold Air? Stay Optimistic!

There's very good reason to be optimistic! We have been outlining the potential for a noticeable turn to colder air for the month of February. Modeling agrees in the overall change in the pattern, but to get specific is useless at this point.

Since it has been so long since we've had a true arctic airmass, let's remember a couple key points. The Ozarks can hold up the cold air for a while, but when it does get here, the models are usually too warm

So what about moisture? From time to time, the models do show some wintry weather for portions of the state. As of the time I write this, I don't see anything widespread. As Barry Brandt says, "With arctic air in place, anything can happen." We'll have one ingredient most likely, cold. Now we need to get the moisture and AVOID ice.

The GEFS 500mb anomaly hemispheric view sticks the trough right in the central United States late this week. Strong ridging off the west coast into Alaska should dislodge the cold and it should slide down the plains.

Left are temperature anomalies the last 15 days. It has been well above average, especially over Canada.

Right are the forecast anomalies for the 1st 10 days of February. That's a HUGE reversal as that ridge brings in the cold!

Now onto the modeling from the Euro. This is NOT a forecast. How all this unfolds is still very questionable!!!! As of today (Sunday) it appears an initial front will bring cooler air with another front arriving a day or two later with even colder air next weekend. Again, too early to speculate about moisture.

Below is the first front. Nothing unusual.

The second front next weekend COULD be a doozy!

😀 Like cold? Well, you gotta love this. Is the model too extreme? Given what has happened this past winter, absolutely! However, it has to get colder at some point, right? I would not place my bets on an extreme scenario like this right now. However, it is interesting to see!

Even more interesting are the wind chills according to the Euro in about 1 week. Do I believe this will happen? Not right now. I reserve the right to change my mind. So why am I posting this? The modeling is telling us winter ain't over yet even if this isn't correct.

Now onto the GFS which has led the charge with the cold air the last few days. The Euro just hopped on board with something similar to the GFS. I know, I didn't see that coming either.

See the model differences? Yep! Specifics are useless at this point, but it has the initial front coming in Friday morning. Nothing unusual, right?!

Cold Saturday, but nothing unusual.

More cold air arrives and early afternoon temperatures in a week are COLD!

In summary...

Colder air is coming, but how cold? I have seen the models adjust slightly and keep the cold air north. I am concerned strong ridging off the southeast coast of the U.S will resist the cold from penetrating too far south. However, if that happens, that will create one heck of a battle zone with numerous waves of moisture. If the air to the north is arctic in nature, it can get pretty wild. Buckle up because it's going to be an interesting forecast in the days to come. Thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog and thanks for trusting Channel 7, the team with the most experience.