Very Active Weather Pattern

Arkansas could be the battleground between very cold air across the western United States and mild conditions east.

This should set the stage for a temperature roller coaster as warm air surges ahead of these systems and cold air comes in for a brief time behind them. At this time, it appears not to be a set up for wintry weather unless a major storm system can wrap moisture into the cold air behind a departing system. I don't see that happening anytime soon. Through at least mid month, we'll likely deal more with rain and storms than anything wintry. Sorry, that's just the way it's shaking out right now.

If the western trough can get a further push east, then we might be in business. I would not get your hopes up! I know this may be depressing news for winter weather lovers. However, keep in mind, there's still plenty of winter to go and it just takes one storm. Be careful for what you ask for. I have several maps below explaining what I'm expecting.

The cold air will be to the left of the jet and mild air to the right. This puts the storm track through the middle of the month right over the center portions of the country. Every few days, we'll have rain and maybe thunderstorm chances. Any winter weather will be confined to the western United States.

GFS Ensemble precip anomalies indicate that battle zone near Arkansas with above average rainfall likely through at least January 17th.

The European Ensembles below indicate the same. WET! Once again, expect storm systems to roll through the central United States quite frequently.

The Climate Prediction Center sees the highly chance for above average precip too through the mid month period.