More Heat and The Tropics

Sweat-Tember turns into Hot-Tober. Yes, we'll have some rain over the next couple days and that's important to the temperature forecast late this week into the beginning of October. If there's soil moisture, it won't be quite as hot as the models indicate, but it will still be well above average.

A massive ridge of high pressure will build over central and eastern United States late this week into the beginning of October. This should send temperatures back into the 90s. Record highs? We need to go back to 1953 and see daily highs were close to 100 in late September. I don't think we'll break that, but once again, it will be unseasonably warm. Watch the beginning of October. Those daily record highs are more likely to be challenged

RECORD HIGHS:

SEPTEMBER 29TH... 101° (1953)

SEPTEMBER 30TH... 99° (1953)

OCTOBER 1ST... 94° (1953) this COULD be challenged

OCTOBER 2ND... 92° (1953) this COULD be challenged

OCTOBER 3RD... 96° (1953) this COULD be challenged

OCTOBER 4TH... 92° (2002) this COULD be challenged

Also, let's watch the tropics. Karen is out in the Atlantic and struggling to remain a tropical storm. However, there is guidance suggesting Karen moves north, turns west, develops into a formidable tropical entity, and moves into the Gulf of Mexico. While that's possible, there are other scenarios which Karen does not threaten the U.S. However, with a sprawling ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern United States, this must be watched!

Official forecast for Karen from the National Hurricane Center. Look at the hard left turn this Friday.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!!!!!!!! Some of the models Karen north, then west towards the United States. However, there are also models which keep this away from the U.S. Too early to say, but the westward track makes sense given the strong ridge of high pressure north. This would steer the storm around the circulation of it. Again, too early to tell, but we must watch this storm.