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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Tropical Wiggle Wobble

It still looks like Arkansas will see impacts from this developing tropical system Sunday and Monday, however, the track continues to wobble west, east, west, east with every run.

I have said this over and over, the exact path of this is crucial for our state. Areas near and east of the path should experience the heaviest rainfall. To the west of the track, the rainfall gradient will be sharp. That means amounts will decrease rapidly over a short distance on the west side of this system.

Tornadoes? Yes. There will be a SMALL chance for a brief, isolated tornado on the eastern side of the system. That's another reason why the path is so important. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall and inland flooding will be the main concern.

2 days ago, the path was far to the west. Wednesday, the track had it coming right through western and central Arkansas. Today, the path has shifted a bit further east which would bring heavy rain to the delta.

While it should become a tropical storm today, this is still developing and I expect the forecast track to change even more over the coming days.

As of this Thursday morning, here's the newest data. REMEMBER, MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS!!!!!! All of this will continue to be adjusted. Stay with KATV Channel 7.

The Thursday morning track has shifted slightly to the east. Remember near and east of the track gets the worst weather. This will still change.

DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY AND AS A FORECAST. IT'S ONLY A MODEL. The NHC seems to be following the Euro and therefore the forecast rain amounts are heaviest across the eastern half with a sharp gradient west. Again, THIS WILL CHANGE as the track adjusts. However, you can see why inland flooding will be a concern. AGAIN, DO NOT TAKE THESE AMOUNTS LITERALLY AT THIS TIME.

Then there's the GFS which takes the heaviest rain well east of the state. At this time, not much weight is put into the GFS.

The official forecast from the Weather Prediction Center is in line with the Euro. Again, this will change.

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