Double Tropical Trouble
Updated: Aug 21, 2020
Arkansas impacts? It's possible! I'm eyeing the middle to end of next week. At the time I write this, tropical depression 13 and 14 have paths taking them directly into the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical depression #13
Tropical depression #14
The first one to become a tropical storm will be Laura and the 2nd to make that status will be Marco. Also, there's another potential area of development coming off the coast of Africa, but our main concerns are these two systems. It would be rather remarkable next Tuesday morning to have a tropical storm and a hurricane in the Gulf at the same time.
Which one COULD impact Arkansas? While both have that potential, I'm more concerned with #14. Any system coming up through Texas and Louisiana puts Arkansas in the worst part of the circulation and that's the eastern side.
#13 would most likely be too far east to impact us, but there's always the chance it keeps moving west before making a jog to the north and that must be watched.
I want to be crystal clear. It's absolutely impossible to forecast specific threats, if any, for Arkansas at this time. However, the track of 14 is concerning and something we must watch. If we receive any impacts, it will not be until the middle to end of next week.
On a side note, this is why tropical systems get named. With multiple systems at the same time, it minimizes confusion and helps effectively communicate the threats and paths of each storm.
From now through the end of September, we are vulnerable to anything brewing in the tropics. Once into October, the chances decrease for us in Arkansas. The westerlies begin to increase and have a tendency to recurve any storms east of the state. However, it can still happen, but the chances are down at that point.