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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Tropical Trouble

An early season tropical system may take aim on Arkansas in the very long range. The official start to the Atlantic tropical season is June 1st, but we have already had 2 named storms and we could see the 3rd in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Early forecasts from last March warned of a very active season ahead due to a number of reasons. We're heading into a La Nina PLUS the sea surface temperatures are quite warm and that's a needed factor for activity to develop and intensify.

The National Hurricane Center has already identified an area for potential development in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical activity in June is nothing unusual. Since 1950, much of it has been centered near the east coast, but look at the western Gulf! Storms can develop in that area and more north. They eventually curve towards the east as it gets absorbed in the west to east jet stream flow.

Below, the Euro ensembles indicate a significant chance for tropical storm development in the central and western Gulf.

EPS Model Guidance below indicate several potential tracks IF a storm develops. Many of those possible scenarios brings the system over Arkansas. Assuming something does develop, a track in or west of Arkansas can bring issues.

GEFS guidance shows potential tracks into the mid south and southeast.

BOTTOM LINE - It's too early to pinpoint details, but the potential is there for something to develop in the Gulf. IF it does develop, these systems can bring heavy rainfall, and with a saturated ground, that's not good. However, we have many days ahead without rainfall to help dry the ground out. IF this affects Arkansas, it will be in the 7-10 day time period. We'll keep you updated.

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