A tropical system may have a direct impact on Arkansas weather next weekend. However, it's too early for specifics. The exact track of this is crucial to our forecast. Between now and September, it's very typical for remnants of tropical systems to affect Arkansas. Once into October, the jet usually become very active and keeps any activity east of our region.
At this time, the main threat will be heavy rainfall along and east of the track. Isolated, brief tornadoes will also be possible in the same area. I caution anyone using the GFS to forecast this system. It has been overhauled since last hurricane season and this system will be an interesting test run for the new model.
The European model will be what I put more weight into over the next week. Since this past weekend, the Euro has trended further to the west with the track and that could place Arkansas in the crosshairs of tropical rainfall. Any further west, and we will receive little if any.
Again, at this stage of the game, it's too early to know the exact track. For a tropical system to affect Arkansas, they usually tend to approach from Texas or Louisiana. If it affects Arkansas, it will be late next weekend.
If you have travel plans to the beach, don't cancel just yet. Pay attention to the forecasts and stay with KATV Channel 7.
Look at the model differences today (Monday) for next weekend. HUGE! Again, I put more stock into the Euro at this point.