Tropical Trouble

We are now entering the peak of the Atlantic tropical season. Typically, September is the last month Arkansas is prone to the remnant moisture of tropical systems. It can happen in October, but usually the storms are pushed off to the east as the jet stream becomes stronger and begins to push south.

There is trouble in the Atlantic, and as of Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center puts the chance for development up to 80% within the next 5 days. Whether or not it develops should not be our focus in Arkansas. The track of this tropical entity is what we need to pay attention to this week. It's the eastern quadrant of tropical systems which provide the most and heaviest rainfall. Of course, this far out, there's tremendous uncertainty. While things can change, it appears southern Arkansas will have the greatest chance for rainfall by mid to late week.

THE EUROPEAN TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOK AT THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO MISSISSIPPI, LOUISIANA, AND TEXAS. THIS IS THE MODEL SEEING THE PATH OF THE STORM AND THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE GFS SHOWS THAT SWATH, BUT MOVES IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH BY NEXT FRIDAY INTO MISSISSIPPI. SO YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE EURO WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS HEAVIEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. SO YOU CAN SEE WHY THE CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IS GREATER AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE. CAN THIS CHANGE? ABSOLUTELY! WE'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON CHANNEL 7.