Tropical Rains To Visit Arkansas
Confidence is increasing Arkansas will experience some impact from a tropical system. I urge caution at this time for several reasons. First, this storm hasn't even formed yet. Second, the exact track will determine who gets the heaviest rainfall. Third, this system is still several days away.
With all that said, our confidence level has increased only due to guidance agreement. Most indicate strengthening and a turn northward towards Arkansas.
I can't stress this enough, THE EXACT PATH OF THIS STORM IS EVERYTHING TO OUR FORECAST! Everyone along and east of the path will have a chance for heavy rainfall. Those west of the path will see much lower amounts. If the system tracks too far east, NOTHING. If the system tracks too far west, not much.
Like I said above, most models say this will track close enough to Arkansas to threaten us with areas of heavy rainfall. We will not be able to rule out isolated, brief tornadoes.
LOOK AT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN FORECASTS TUESDAY VS WEDNESDAY.