Tropical Rains To Visit Arkansas

Confidence is increasing Arkansas will experience some impact from a tropical system. I urge caution at this time for several reasons. First, this storm hasn't even formed yet. Second, the exact track will determine who gets the heaviest rainfall. Third, this system is still several days away.

With all that said, our confidence level has increased only due to guidance agreement. Most indicate strengthening and a turn northward towards Arkansas.

I can't stress this enough, THE EXACT PATH OF THIS STORM IS EVERYTHING TO OUR FORECAST! Everyone along and east of the path will have a chance for heavy rainfall. Those west of the path will see much lower amounts. If the system tracks too far east, NOTHING. If the system tracks too far west, not much.

Like I said above, most models say this will track close enough to Arkansas to threaten us with areas of heavy rainfall. We will not be able to rule out isolated, brief tornadoes.

Over the past 70 years, 23 tropical systems have been within 500 miles of Little Rock during the month of July. In other words, we typically get a system about once every 3 years.

We should have a tropical depression soon in the Gulf, then a storm. Heavy rain the main threat for us. Several computer models indicate a turn towards Arkansas after development.

LOOK AT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN FORECASTS TUESDAY VS WEDNESDAY.

Rain forecast made Tuesday. Look at the swath of heavy rainfall mainly along our western border. That was in response to a western shift of the low's track.

Today's rainfall forecast has a eastward shift due to the models moving the low in the same direction. The point? Each run and each forecast will have shifts over the next few days until we have a better handle on the situation. When will that occur? I think this system has to develop first to have higher confidence. Stay with KATV Channel 7.