Tropical Rains?!

Arkansas still stands a decent chance for heavy tropical rains late this weekend. It's very difficult to forecast a storm that hasn't even formed. For that reason, I will continue to tell you this forecast is a low confidence one for Sunday and Monday. Some of the computer models indicate the low will track very close or through Arkansas while others take it much further to the west. Here's what we know as of today (Tuesday)

- The low is about to move over the northern Gulf and development is likely by the end of the week.

-It will be given the name, "Barry".

-It should become a tropical storm. Hurricane status is unlikely, but I can't rule that out completely.

-The main threat will be heavy rainfall for Arkansas Sunday and Monday IF the storm tracks up here.

-There's always the threat for isolated and brief tornadoes with a landfalling tropical system.

Once the low gets out into the open Gulf of Mexico, it should develop. The warm ocean water is the fuel for these storms.

Various computer models take it south of New Orleans, then it's questionable where it will go at that point. If it keeps going west, little if any impact on Arkansas. If it hooks north, it will have an impact on our weather.

Sunday afternoon Euro - This is the most aggressive model bringing heavy rain to Arkansas Sunday afternoon.

It continues to bring heavy rain along and east of the track Monday morning. This is just a computer model and NOT a forecast. Other pieces of data shows no impact on Arkansas. However, the Euro has been consistent with a northward jog. Too early to know just yet.