To Snow Or Not To Snow
Updated: Nov 14, 2018
8:30PM Tuesday update... As I have said time and time again, these potent cut off lows throw curveballs from time to time. One of those potential curveballs is Wednesday morning. Some of the short range models indicate an area of snow for southeast and eastern Arkansas. There could also be some freezing drizzle. Will there be accumulation? IF IT HAPPENS, the most likely places would be on grassy surfaces and exposed objects. Again, this is a POTENTIAL curveball.
Past Wednesday morning, the potential continues to exist for accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon and evening for eastern and northeastern Arkansas.
That is the question. As I stated in my previous blog post, these cut off upper level lows can throw forecast surprises. While this still can and probably will do so, there is a high degree in confidence northeastern Arkansas will receive the greatest impact from this storm system.
I expect snow to develop late Wednesday into Thursday morning with accumulating snowfall across eastern and northeastern Arkansas. The only question is how far west will snow fly? This all depends on the eventual track of the upper level low. I think there's a decent chance central Arkansas sees flakes fly, but I'm not confident on any accumulation. Certainly, the European wants to do just that and it performed well with the northwestern Arkansas system Monday.
I have called off snow making Wednesday morning and will reschedule it down the road. This upper level low will throw clouds on top of us tonight and prevent temperatures from dropping to levels I'm comfortable with for snow making.
Isn't it amazing we have had 1 November snow and we're expecting yet another? Over the past few years, summer has extended well into October into November, but not this year! Does it mean a snowy winter? Remember, the WeatherBell.com winter forecast does call for below average temperatures and above average snowfall. I think they have the right idea so far!
The graphics below are only models. You can't take them literally. However, you can see remarkable agreement on the snowfall placement. This upper level low will really crank out heavy snow once into Missouri and Illinois.