There's Something To Watch

CAUTION - Models can have you dreaming of a winter wonderland only to turn it into a nightmare. Let me translate. Snow lovers, do NOT get excited at this time.

A BIG warm up is expected Sunday into Monday, then temperatures tank. There are signs moisture will overrun the cold air at the surface. HOWEVER, since this is 5-6 days away, there are so many unknowns such as:

• How far south will the cold air push?

• Depth of the cold air?

• Where will the plume of moisture set up or will it even exist?

The models have their difference as you would expect. The only reason why I'm writing this post is because the Euro is now showing something. If it was only the GFS, I would mostly ignore it since it has a terrible cold and snowy bias.

Based on how this winter has gone so far, I would say there's a very small chance for any wintry weather next week, but at least THERE'S SOMETHING TO WATCH! RIGHT?

This is the 500mb (about 20K feet) from the GFS valid next Wednesday. There's a trough driving cold air south out of Canada. At the same time, there's a decent plume of moisture which should pull out on a southwesterly flow aloft. This could set up an overrunning event depending on all the factors I listed above.

Remember, MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS.

The Euro late Wednesday has a LIGHT mix for the southern half of the state.

The GFS is further north and faster with the moisture.

DISCLAIMER - We're a little less than a week away, but this is the first time we've had something to watch in a long time. I would NOT get too excited at this point.

Thanks for your trust and coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog.