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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

The Verdict Is In

All that is left is for the jury to read it and it's the same verdict we have heard so many times this winter.

Very glad we NEVER bit on the snowstorm idea once again for this upcoming weekend. We stayed the course at Channel 7 and have only called for a cold rain with any chance for wintry weather up north. Since this hasn't even happened yet, it can change, but we have a decent amount of agreement with the modeling.

The models have been too cold and too snowy all winter. They also show temperatures in the teens for lows next week. That's the next thing to watch. I think there's a greater chance lows will only be in the 20s for central Arkansas. We still have time to figure that out.

Here's a piece of my blog post from Monday....

Blog post from early week

All of the models have a cold rain with temperatures falling throughout the day (Sunday). It will be quite breezy as well. The GFS has it ending as a wintry mix Sunday afternoon as far south as central Arkansas and I'll show you why that is unlikely to happen. Yesterday, I put the chance for this happening at less than 50/50 and today it's even less.

This just isn't our winter in central Arkansas. I hate to say it, but that's the way it is. Prove me wrong Mother Nature. Your time is running out though.

This is yet another case of the cold needing to be in place before the moisture arrives. There is cold, but it's nowhere as cold as the model predicted a few days ago and temperatures are mostly above freezing. It's only northern Arkansas which will have issues just like the past 9 or 10 times this winter.

This is the GFS. I can't show the Euro from WeatherBell, but it's similar. It's a cold rain for most Sunday morning with temperatures in the mid 40s. At one point, the models had temperatures in the mid 20s Sunday morning. I suspect the teleconnective index problem discussed in the blog below is limiting the extend and strength of the cold air further south.

Sunday morning through noon, the rain continues with a wintry mix the northern 2 rows of counties, especially the higher elevations.

This is the old run of the GFS late Sunday with a change to a wintry mix before ending further south. BUT WAIT! LOOK AT THE NEXT IMAGE.

The new run of the GFS for the same time is not as far south with it. Each model run continues to take it away. The Euro doesn't have it at all further south. Going with the trend, future model runs of the GFS will likely come back with less wintry weather further south. Like I said, the chance for it ending as snow/sleet into central Arkansas is well less than 50/50. I wouldn't rule out a flake or a sleet pellet, but no accumulation likely.

In summary...

- Rain will become likely Saturday night into Sunday.

- Temperatures will fall throughout Sunday with gusty winds

- The subfreezing air will NOT be in place for most of us prior to the event which limits any real winter weather potential

- Northern Arkansas will have the best chance for wintry weather (sleet/snow)

Sunday. This will mostly be in the higher elevations. Accumulations will be

possible, but probably nothing different than the past several events there.

-The change to wintry weather further south is possible, but very doubtful


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