The Streak Ends This Week?

Today (Monday) marks 1107 days since Little Rock last reached 100° and that's the 6th longest stretch in recorded weather history. If we make it to August 4th, it will become the 5th longest stretch. Will we do it? I have BIG doubts.

Remember those horrible summer of 2010, 2011, 2012? The endless extreme heat was miserable. It's hard to believe we haven't had much extreme heat since then! Little Rock has not reached 100° in 3 years when we average 8 days per year.

There are 3 things necessary for triple digit heat around here: Sunshine, a strong ridge of high pressure, and a dry ground. We'll have the ridge and we'll have sunshine. However, we still have substantial soil moisture! That MIGHT save us. It's very possible it will dry out enough by the end of the week to crank those temperatures to near 100. Nevertheless, the heat index will reach 105 or greater due to the humidity so use caution if working outdoors.

I see signs the ridge of hot high pressure will migrate back to the western United States in about 7 to 10 days so I don't see this as a prolonged period of extreme heat. The days to watch for 100 degree heat will be Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and maybe Monday. If we can make through those 5 days, we should make it to that critical date of August 4th.

MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS! Look at the trends. The run at 100 will be late this week into the weekend.

European guidance

GFS guidance

National Blend of Models.

Hot ridge of high pressure Friday cuts off rain chances and we bake!

Ridge moves back to the west in about 1 week with a cooling trough developing over the east.