ALL forms of precipitation will be possible across the state: rain, snow, sleet, and hail. Ok, maybe no graupel. This is a very dynamic system to say the least!
Our thinking has not changed much at all over the past week. It will be a cold rain with any chance for wintry weather across northern Arkansas. The air coming in behind the system is cold, but the models are no where as cold as they were a few days ago when they had lows in Little Rock around 10 degrees. Now they are in the lower to mid 20s. Our lowest temperature this winter has been 19° so it will be interesting to see if we can match that or get lower.
Here are my key points before going into all the maps.
- Rain will start late Saturday and last until about midday Sunday
-The weekend will NOT be a complete loss weatherwise as the moisture quickly leaves Sunday afternoon
-There could be a few thunderstorms with small hail. This was discussed yesterday. With 10s of thousands outdoors for the Marathon, this could be an issue. The storms should NOT be widespread, but there could be lightning. I'm sure organizers have a plan.
- Northern Arkansas will have a wintry mix of rain to sleet to snow. Accumulations will be possible. However, they should only reach winter weather advisory criteria. Only a very small chance for a winter storm warning.
-The chance for rain changing to snow into central Arkansas is there, but it's VERY low. If it does happen, expect it late Sunday morning into the afternoon. I'm doubtful though
-It will be breezy Sunday with temperatures falling throughout the day. This means the high will be set at midnight.
The following few maps is simulated radar from the RPM. Not a great model, but it will work in this situation.
Model snow amounts for the next few images. THEY ARE MODELS AND NOT FORECASTS!!! THEY ARE RARELY EVER PERFECT. They do all agree where it will snow, but disagree on amounts.