Sunday Mess?!

ALL forms of precipitation will be possible across the state: rain, snow, sleet, and hail. Ok, maybe no graupel. This is a very dynamic system to say the least!

Our thinking has not changed much at all over the past week. It will be a cold rain with any chance for wintry weather across northern Arkansas. The air coming in behind the system is cold, but the models are no where as cold as they were a few days ago when they had lows in Little Rock around 10 degrees. Now they are in the lower to mid 20s. Our lowest temperature this winter has been 19° so it will be interesting to see if we can match that or get lower.

Here are my key points before going into all the maps.

- Rain will start late Saturday and last until about midday Sunday

-The weekend will NOT be a complete loss weatherwise as the moisture quickly leaves Sunday afternoon

-There could be a few thunderstorms with small hail. This was discussed yesterday. With 10s of thousands outdoors for the Marathon, this could be an issue. The storms should NOT be widespread, but there could be lightning. I'm sure organizers have a plan.

- Northern Arkansas will have a wintry mix of rain to sleet to snow. Accumulations will be possible. However, they should only reach winter weather advisory criteria. Only a very small chance for a winter storm warning.

-The chance for rain changing to snow into central Arkansas is there, but it's VERY low. If it does happen, expect it late Sunday morning into the afternoon. I'm doubtful though

-It will be breezy Sunday with temperatures falling throughout the day. This means the high will be set at midnight.

The following few maps is simulated radar from the RPM. Not a great model, but it will work in this situation.

7AM Sunday rain with snow inching into northern Arkansas. What's wrong with this model possibly? The transition to wintry weather across the north may happen quicker. Also, there could be more rain and storms across the state than what is depicted here. However, see that blob of rain and storms over MS and AL? That will be just south of AR a few hours prior and can help minimize the amount of moisture north of it. Once it moves away, rain will fill in for much of the state. We'll watch that.

By 9 to 10AM, we're off to the races. Rain with a wintry mix of sleet and snow north

By noon, you can already see the whole thing decreasing and moving away

2PM and it's mostly gone. However, flurries will be possible over the Ozarks

Model snow amounts for the next few images. THEY ARE MODELS AND NOT FORECASTS!!! THEY ARE RARELY EVER PERFECT. They do all agree where it will snow, but disagree on amounts.

RPM sees LIGHT accumulations north with isolated higher amounts in the higher elevations. This is generally 1-2'' according to this model. NOT A FORECAST

The NAM agrees where it will snow, but it disagrees on amounts. However, not by much

The Euro looks similar as well.

The GFS is going bonkers with accumulations far northwest Arkansas. It's the only model doing this. It also has the snow furthest south compared to other models. It's what I consider an outlier, but can't be completely disregarded.

Wind chills Monday morning will be brutal!