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  • Todd Yakoubian

Summer Temperature Roller Coaster?

A temperature roller coaster in late July in early August? Yep, it seems likely! We will not challenge any record highs late this week, but could end our streak without reaching 100°. The most likely days to do so will be Friday and Saturday. After that, a MAJOR pattern shift appears likely. Let me explain.


This is a birds eye view of the northern hemisphere showing 500mb height anomalies. It basically shows ridges and troughs. Hot weather underneath the ridges and cooler air with the troughs. Below is Wednesday. There's a sprawling ridge of high pressure over much of the United States. HOT!

By the beginning of next week, the pattern amplifies! The ridges are troughs stretch more north and south. The ridge moves to the western U.S and western Canada with a significant trough over the central and eastern United States. If this was winter, I'd be making snow in my backyard!

This is the result. Cooler than average temperatures to start August for much of the region according to the Euro

The GFS ensemble


Highs and lows according to the Euro guidance. NOT A FORECAST! Look at the trend. HOT late this week, then the roller coaster down.

The GFS singing the same tune.