Summer Goes On Vacation

The guidance I have examined this Tuesday morning continues to indicate we'll have an extended period of below average temperatures and it should all start next week.

Starting Wednesday, temperatures will begin to creep up and so will the moisture levels. At this time, I still don't think it will be extreme heat, but it will become quite uncomfortable and heat advisories may be needed for some.

The jet stream will buckle and that's unusual for this time of year. The western United States will bake under a hot ridge of high pressure while most of the country east of the Rocky Mountains get an extended vacation from summer heat and humidity.

The transition period starts this weekend and rain chances will begin across northern Arkansas with the remainder of the state seeing widespread showers and storms Sunday and maybe even into Monday too. While I don't expect a wash-out, there will be some much needed rain. Whenever you get into one of these transitional periods, you must pay attention to the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time it looks limited, but it's a possibility which needs to be monitored.

After a few days of above average temperatures we'll begin an extended period of below average temperatures next week. On Sunday and Monday, this will be primarily due to clouds and rain chances. Then a more refreshing airmass should arrive by the middle of next week.

Based upon guidance from the CPC and the European Ensembles, there's a better than 50/50 chance most of the first 10 days of August will feature below average temperatures. While it will still get hot, it won't be horrible and the humidity levels should stay in check.

The 6-10 day outlook really shows where the hot ridge of high pressure sets up over the western United States. For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction. A downstream trough will bring widespread below average readings to the central and eastern United States.

CPC guidance through August 6th continues with the unusual pattern with the Euro Ensembles continuing after this period as well. Hard to believe, but all signs are pointing towards this scenario.

As we go into the last month of meteorological summer, the average temperature begins to drop and the number of daylight hours begins to decrease as well. As a matter of fact, we lose almost an hour of daylight in August. We are also entering our driest time of the year as well according to the 30 year average.