Rain and thunderstorms will increase Saturday from south to north. I still think the main threat for severe thunderstorms will be across southeast Arkansas closer to the Louisiana border. The warm front location is critical in determining where the worst storms will develop. It's along and south of the front with the greatest threat. I expect it to get into south central and southeast Arkansas. We can't let our guard down further north, but the severe threat will decrease towards central and northern Arkansas north of the boundary.
I expect a tornado watch to be issued for southern Arkansas Saturday afternoon and early evening. There are so many things going on this weekend from the Rocket 5K to the Arkansas Derby to Proms. You MUST have a way to receive warnings! This appears to be a fairly fast moving system so most of the severe threat will end before 10PM Saturday.
Outside of the severe threat, flooding will be an issue. Don't underestimate that whatsoever! We have had a few days to dry out, but I can see street flooding becoming an issue, especially the southern 1/2 of Arkansas.
Below is future radar. Not perfect, but a good general idea.
Around 8-9AM Saturday, the warm front is mostly south of the viewing area with areas of rain and storms north of the boundary. The main threats at this time will be heavy rainfall and lightning. As the low moves out of Texas, it will push the warm front north a bit. Remember, the placement of that front is critical in determining the location of the worst storms.
By late Saturday afternoon, the warm sector has advanced into southeast Arkansas. That's the area to really watch. North of that boundary, rain will be heavy with a hail threat possible. Along and south of that front, ahead of the low, hail, wind, and tornadoes will be possible. I expect a tornado watch to be issued in this general area Saturday afternoon and early evening. Have a plan! I expect a bigger severe weather threat from east Texas into Louisiana.
According to the RPM, the threat will be diminishing around 9 to 10PM Saturday. What's that in Oklahoma? Scroll down.
MUCH colder air moves in with showers later Sunday morning. It MIGHT be cold enough in the higher elevations of far northwest Arkansas for a few wet snowflakes!!!
The Storm Prediction Center is focusing the risk south of I-40 and east of I-30. Notice the moderate risk area in south Arkansas. Again, that's mainly along and south of that warm front location. I expect the worst storms in east Texas and Louisiana.
Rainfall this weekend.
Weekend rain PLUS the next storm system arriving Wednesday of next week. Amounts will likely exceed 4'' across the southeast half of the state. Once again, flooding will be a concern along with another severe weather threat Wednesday.