Spring Storms To Winter Weather
We'll possibly have both this week and it's not unusual. There have been times we have it at the same time in Arkansas.
The threat for severe storms is real later Sunday into very early Monday morning as a classic early spring storm system moves through the state. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but we will have to watch out for a tornado or two as well. The greatest threat will be across northern Arkansas, but we'll need to monitor areas further south as well.
This same area of the state will have the threat for winter weather later this week. Should be no surprise since we have been talking about it for almost a week already.
There are key differences in the modeling. Let's look at 500mb which is about 20K feet up.
The Euro first.
See the reads and oranges positioned near and west of the state? That's the upper level energy with cold air in place at the surface.
The GFS wants to position it further east-northeast at this time.
The difference is huge when considering what kind of weather we will have Friday and Saturday. The Euro says winter weather possible while the GFS says just colder and dry.
Now let's look at the GFS and Euro ensembles. Both agree there's a decent chance for at least 1 inch of snow northern Arkansas late this week.
Bottom line summary...
It's going to get cold again, but it should be brief. Anytime we have arctic air in place, look out! At this time, northern Arkansas will have the greatest chance. As this evolves, we'll keep you updated. Let's just get through the severe weather threat first.