Spring Storms

From 19° early in the week to near 80° Saturday, that's how we roll in Arkansas this time of year.

I expect a round of showers and storms to move into western Arkansas just before sunrise Saturday. Some of these storms will be strong and I can't rule out a severe thunderstorm or two with this. As it moves east, the chance for severe thunderstorms within this line may increase if the warm air builds far enough to the north. The main threats will be wind and hail. As always, the threat for a tornado or two can't be ruled out, but it's on the low side for much of the Channel 7 viewing area.

The next round of rain and storms for Arkansas is highly questionable. If they do develop Saturday afternoon, they should be isolated and mainly across eastern Arkansas.

Meanwhile, temperatures have the potential to skyrocket Saturday afternoon to near 80 degrees with strong southwesterly to westerly winds. Those winds could exceed 30mph.

Remember, computer models are never perfect, but this gives a good general idea how this may unfold.

Saturday severe storm risk. The SPC is now highlighting eastern Arkansas for an enhanced risk. This is the area I have been talking about on the Arkansas Weather Blog over the past few days.

The RPM has showers and storms entering western Arkansas just before sunrise. Some strong with the threat for severe storms low.

By 9AM, storms are increasing. Again, the threat for severe is low, but there. Wind and hail would be the primary threats.

Will round 2 develop? The first round may stabilize the atmosphere enough to keep storms from developing along the front. IF they do develop, they should be isolated and could become severe. Look at the storms moving into MS. Those will be increasing in intensity as it heats up ahead of the line.

Storms try to get going along the front, but may struggle. There may be more development up into Missouri along the front where dynamics will be stronger. The storms over MS and AL will have to be watched, but the threat will be ending across much of Arkansas by mid to late afternoon. Notice how much of Arkansas is dry! The weekend will not be a wash-out, but it will be very windy and warm Saturday.