• Todd Yakoubian

Some Winter Weather, BUT...


There's ALWAYS a "BUT" whenever winter weather is possible in Arkansas. We've been tracking this system for almost a week and it looks "kinda" promising. Most of the model guidance has a very quick and brief round of winter weather late Wednesday into early Thursday. The NAM is doing its usual thing and cranking out crazy amounts of snow and I'm not believing it at this time. The other models look reasonable to a degree. See what I did there?


We're dealing with a very strong area of high pressure. If you have read my blog over the past 15 years, you know there are certain things I look out for. First of all, the moisture has looked suppressed on all the model runs until now. A couple days ago I said I thought this looked wrong. Now the models have all corrected north and shows much of Arkansas getting precipitation (light). Now, what will the models correct next? It's possible the models are underplaying the strength of the cold air. With a significant high and strong Northeast to East winds, the temperatures could actually be colder further south. We have seen this play out over and over again. Let's just say hypothetically, this is the case. Any wintry weather would still be light, quick moving with little impacts. Temperatures will be marginal no matter what happens.


BELOW ARE MODELS!!! THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS. You will see the NAM is likely off, but the focus for any snow or sleet will be the northern 1/2 of Arkansas. Could this end up a little further south, based on the above discussion? It's possible. Don't look at ANY exact amounts, but notice the placement of the wintry weather. That's where the models see the greatest chance at this time.





Summary...


  • If it happens, it will be brief and light

  • The favored area is the north 1/2

  • What could go wrong? It's colder further south

  • Impacts would be small and limited to just a few hours

  • There may be more sleet than what the models show at this time

  • It's Monday and this is scheduled to occur on Wednesday night/Thursday so this will be adjusted in time. We'll have a much better grasp on it by late Tuesday.



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