The chance for significant snow is increasing late Tuesday into early Wednesday. If you've been following on the blog or social, the last week of this month is what we have been highlighting for winter to return. If you think this is the last chance this season, I disagree. More threats for wintry weather in the long range, but let's look at what is directly in front of us now.
The track of the low is classic for winter weather in Arkansas. However, a track further south increases the chance and a track further north pushes the snow into the far corner of NW AR.
Temperatures will be marginal so this snow will be like mashed potatoes. It will be heavy, wet snow
The greatest chance will be the northwest 1/2 of the state, but can change depending on track
I expect a winter storm warning for northern Arkansas
Since temperatures will hover around freezing, once the snow ends, melting will be fast, especially on the roads.
Central Arkansas is a close call for any snow amounts, but flakes should fly.
Could this be a situation where snow adds up in the higher elevations of west Little Rock and western Pulaski county with little to no snow towards downtown and the airport? Possibly.
Let's go to the model guidance.
The chance for at least 1'' of snow is VERY high for much of the northwest 1/2 of Arkansas.
The chance for at least 3'' of snow is very high for the higher elevations of the Ozarks and Ouchita's. Notice the chance lower in the Arkansas River Valley. The chance is still there, but lower compared to the higher elevations.
The chance for at least 6'' of snow is elevated for the northern and western mountains. Moisture with this system is not in question!
Model amounts, NOT a forecast. The "+" could end up being 6'' or a little more on the highest peaks ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
Our preliminary snow outlook. If this is wrong, blame James. He made it. LOL. Just kidding James, no, but seriously.
Meteorologist James Bryant has a fantastic Twitter threat about the entire event.