Snow Way!

Ever since last February, I continue to get the feeling that a little snow in the forecast is just not a big deal anymore. Maybe it's just me? After 20'' of snow, and extreme cold, it can't get any worse than that, right? One thing I can say, this is NOT looking like last February! We all know it does not take much snow to cause problems.

At this time, it appears there are strong signals for at least some snow over northern Arkansas according to the ensemble guidance I like to look at. Each run of the operational Euro and GFS will shift some, but the overwhelming message is the possibility for some snow over northern Arkansas. I have also noticed surface temperatures will be holding at or above freezing during most of the event and it doesn't really wind up until it gets east of Arkansas. Keep in mind, guidance just showed this solution last night, it can easily change in any direction.

GFS ensemble late Sunday shows a good chance for at least 1'' of snow, especially across northern Arkansas.

The European ensemble shows a similar scenario

The Canadian is on board too.

Less than half of the Euro 50 ensemble members show snow in central Arkansas. There is hope for snow lovers, but I URGE caution!