Snow-Tober? Maybe Not.
Updated: Oct 21
8PM Tuesday update - As thought, the Euro is backing off the extreme GFS solution. It will typically lead the way in a change and the GFS will slowly catch up to it. Therefore, my suspicious are probably correct, "NOT going to happen", but it is 2020. I'm sticking with the Euro at this time.
Normally, I would say, "not going to happen", BUT it is 2020.
We're going to have a mild week ahead with cooler air this weekend, but the BIG cold front does not arrive until late Sunday into Monday. I am very confident a much colder air mass will settle into the region with the first widespread frost and/or freeze coming next week.
Moisture? There will be a COLD RAIN behind the arctic boundary. HOWEVER, it might be cold enough in the higher elevations of northern Arkansas for a light wintry mix. The Tuesday morning models show this as a possibility Monday night into Tuesday morning (October 26th-27th).
These are models and NOT forecasts. Below is the Euro valid at 1AM Tuesday morning with enough cold air on the back side for a light wintry mix northwest. This all assumes the air is cold enough and there's enough moisture lagging in that cold air. That's a lot to count on, especially so early in the season. That's my hesitation, but it's 2020.
Lo and behold, the GFS is similar. It has more precip well west of the state too with the upper low. Wouldn't get excited about that at this time.
Euro temperatures through the 29th. Again, not a forecast, it's a model. Clearly mild this week with a sharp turn to colder air next week. Frost and/or freeze possible.
The GFS has that colder air next week too with cool temperatures to start November. Gobble Gobble!