Snow Or No?
Heavy and wet snow will become likely tonight into Thursday morning across mainly the higher elevations of northern and west central Arkansas. I like to call these events "mashed potato snow" because the wet nature of the snow makes it look clumpy.
First are the key points for this system Wednesday night and Thursday, then more about the late weekend system and cold air beyond.
A cold rain will overspread the state Wednesday into Thursday night.
The rain will mix with and change to snow in the higher elevations of northern and western Arkansas.
Temperatures will be marginal and hover around freezing across those locations.
Roads will have slick spots up high for a period of time
Rain may mix with a few wet snow flakes at times maybe as far south as central Arkansas and into eastern Arkansas Thursday, but temperatures will be above freezing.
This really illustrates the impacts with elevation. While the River Valley sees mainly rain, you go north and run into minor to moderate winter weather impacts. IMO, I would say the highest elevations will have more significant impacts than indicated here for at least a few hours Thursday morning.
Now onto the late weekend system arriving Sunday into Monday morning. The models have been all over the place with this. Most of the modeling keeps it well south of Arkansas and we'll have cold and dry weather. HOWEVER, the overnight run of the Euro confirms why we kept at least a small chance for LIGHT wintry weather over southern Arkansas. At this time, I would not get your hopes up, but it's always worth watching.
The Euro ensembles (MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS) show a little northward push of the storm system with the overnight run. It shows a 20 to 40% chance for snow accumulations of at least 1''. Other models show NOTHING. Don't hang your hat on this. Remember, track is everything. Further north, it gets exciting. Further south, we get nothing.
The Euro shows that light precip late Sunday into Monday morning. It would be very brief IF it happens. The low is still very far to the south.
The winter weather outlook from the Weather Prediction Center does hint at a few spots over north Louisiana with a 10 to 30% chance for minor amounts.
We'll keep you updated. Thanks for trusting the team with the most experience!