Snow Or No?
After a few crazy runs of the Euro showing big snow and a few runs of the GFS showing no snow, we're settling into a higher confidence forecast. Well, at least higher than yesterday. This is why you can't take models at face value. The Euro was trying to tell us something. Not that we were going to have a big snow, but changes to our forecast were coming.
Again, please somebody write a song about this. The most likely place for any snow will be the higher elevations of northern Arkansas and MAYBE the higher elevations of west central Arkansas. Outside of those areas, it will most likely be a cold rain. Sunday, should not be a washout whatsoever. The bigger weather story may turn out to be the much colder air and colder wind chill values after near record breaking highs. This colder air was written about earlier this month here on the Arkansas weather blog.
Meteorologist James Bryant brought something to my attention this Thursday morning. By the way, I call him James, Weatherpedia, Bryant. I thought I knew Arkansas weather well until he came along. He is a wealth of knowledge and we are so lucky to have him at KATV
From the rules of forecasting Arkansas weather. I bet John Robinson had a hand in this.
"LOW" and behold. See what I did there?
Models are NOT forecasts. Light amounts for the higher elevations. Euro doing a nice job of seeing the Arkansas River Valley and keeping it too warm for snow.
GFS basically the same thing.
NAM might be onto something given the Arkansas Rules for Forecasting.
The Canadian from weatherbell.com. It might be onto something like the NAM
Temperatures Sunday afternoon MUCH colder, but NOT below freezing.
Wind chills Monday morning! That's weather whiplash after highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday!!!!!
In summary, models are a tool, but experience trumps everything. While it does seem reasonable to mention snow in the forecast with light amounts in the favored higher elevations, there are components to this system which cast doubt on that happening. As always, it will be fun to watch.