Snow Lovers Should Be Optimistic. I Am!
I really like what I'm seeing on the computer models and we're going into the snowiest month of the year, February. The last thing I want to do is give snow lovers false hope. Long range forecasting is tricky! However, there's a lot to be optimistic about and I want to show you why.
It seems most systems coming through here struggle to produce any wintry weather because it's only marginally cold. Northern Arkansas is usually favored and even there temperatures hover around freezing. We have not been able to tap into true arctic air. That may change.
Left are temperature anomalies the last 10 days in degrees F. Right are temperature anomalies for about the first 10 days of February according to the GEFS. Notice Canada is cooling significantly. We'll be able to tap into that cold if the pattern adjusts properly.
Birdseye view of the northern hemisphere 500mb height anomalies. Look at the blues (trough) off the west coast. That's favorable to bring cold south into our region. The ridge to the left of it needs to build into Alaska and the trough needs to push east. Lo and behold, it does do that in the long range (right). Those big areas of red need to connect up through Alaska and the arctic. That will send arctic air into the trough over the central United States.
All 3 of the teleconnective indicies I look at (AO, NAO, EPO) go mostly negative. That's good if you want cold.
Since 2000, February is our snowiest month.
In summary, I'm not giving up on winter. Long range forecasting is tricky and slight adjustments to the pattern can make or break the cold. However, my glass is half full we'll start to see truly colder air by the end of next week in the United States. Remember, a clash of air masses as this gets underway could mean rain and storms.
Thanks for your trust and stay with KATV Channel 7. The team with the most experience.