Snow! It Could Be A Memory Maker
There are no guarantees in weather until after it happens, but confidence is very high snow will fall twice over the next several days.
The first storm may arrive with 2 rounds. One arrives Sunday, then another Sunday night into Monday morning. We have adjusted the amounts slightly and you that above. Guidance sees 2 swaths of heavy snow. One just northwest of us and another on top of portions of central and southern Arkansas. We have gone with 3-7'' as of Saturday morning. Why 3''? That's the floor. It would be possible for a few locations to see that between the 2 heavier swaths.
On the flip side of the floor, let's talk about the ceiling. It's possible for some to see as much as 7'' or MORE. Probably not much more than 7'', but we'll need to watch an area just south and east of the Little Rock metro for heavier amounts. It's entirely possible for convective banding. That's areas of enhanced snowfall. In those areas, it's possible for... wait for it... wait for it... wait for it.... THUNDERSNOW.
Where all of the above sets up can change and keep checking back.
Once snow is on the ground, IT WILL STAY ON THE GROUND! Dangerous wind chills arrive Monday and Tuesday with near record breaking lows. It will be the coldest we have seen in years and the coldest stretch of weather we have seen in MANY years. It's EXTREMELY important to check on the elderly, sick, etc. This is going to be tough on many and the demand for heat will be through the roof.
I'll say this until I'm blue in the face. Ice covered ponds are dangerous. Talk to your kids about the dangers. A small weakness in that ice and its every parents nightmare.
Yes, there will be another round Wednesday into Thursday. There is less confidence in the details of that storm, but high confidence it will happen. Most of this week will feature a snow covered ground/streets, bitterly cold wind chills, and school will likely not be in session. I guess they "pivot to virtual".
IMO, I hope kids can get a break from everything that has been going on and play safely in the snow. THIS IS A MEMORY MAKER! This COULD turn out to be something they talk to their kids about one day. Let's make those memories good ones. Stay safe everyone.
Now, onto the maps.
MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS. This goes into the timing with the different rounds of wintry weather. It will initially be light, then increase in intensity.
The snow should end from west to east late Monday morning into the afternoon.
Wind chill advisories and wind chill warnings likely
This is from the Weather Prediction Center. The more I look at these maps, the less I like them. The area of major impacts will be much wider than that. I'm not sure, but I think this is computer generated and that's an issue in my world.
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE We'll fine tune spec