Snow in November? Why Not?

It happened 4 years ago almost to the exact date! A light coating of snow fell mainly north and west of the metro.

November 2014

Something similar may happen again Monday. A very cold rain will become likely Sunday night into Monday with temperatures steady or falling into the mid 30s. For the most part, surface temperatures will remain above freezing. As an area of low pressure aloft pulls into the region, the rain will have a chance to change over to light snow mainly north and west of central Arkansas. There are models which show it further south, but I'm taking a conservative approach to this. At the end of the day, I think it's more of a "WOW" event. Whatever falls will be brief and gone quickly as temperatures go back into the 40s Tuesday.

Once again, I can't stress this enough. This is nothing to panic about or get too excited, but it does appear a brief change to light snow will be possible later Monday for mainly areas north and west of the metro. Regardless, it's going to be a very cold rain with readings well below average.

What about the very long range forecast into Thanksgiving? At this time, I think there's a very good chance for a significant warming trend. The back and forth continues!

The GFS courtesy of WeatherBell.com shows the surface low over southern Alabama. If this were a few weeks later, I would be all in for something big. This is mostly a cold rain, however, look at that blue mainly north and west of the metro. The red line is the freezing line at the surface. IF there's anything white falling, it's mostly in air above freezing, except the far northwest. it will also be brief.

The NAM courtesy of WeatherBell.com shows something quite similar. Once again, don't take this literally. We're still a few days away.

The Euro courtesy of F5Weather is consistent with any change over across northern and western Arkansas. Mainly higher elevations too.