Sneak Peak Into Christmas Week
If you want more info on the snow for Sunday December 13th, see previous post. https://www.arkansasweatherblog.com/post/winter-returns-1
Please remember, we're dealing with something in the long range and those forecasts are never perfect. At this point, all we can do is look at the pattern and make a few assumptions. Details and specifics this far out are impossible.
From what I see today, it will be much different than last Christmas when we saw near record warmth. There might be a burst of milder temperatures a few days prior to Christmas, but that may not last long.
The models have been consistent in sticking a trough in the central portion of the country. That does not necessarily mean snow, but it does mean the active weather pattern continues with the possibility for cool to cold air.
New this Sunday morning, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation may be going negative around that time. If it's right, that means a ridge would build up into Alaska and the eastern Pacific Ocean. That would dislodge the cold air in the arctic and take it south. How far south? Too early. How cold? Too early.
This is a birds eye view of the northern hemisphere on the Euro ensembles courtesy of weatherbell.com. The blue in the Gulf of Alaska means the models see troughing there. That pumps the ridge in the eastern Pacific. The stronger and further north that ridge can get, the higher the potential for cold air drainage into the United States. East of that ridge is the trough over the central United States around Christmas. IF that's right, it will not be nearly as warm as last Christmas with active weather continuing. In the words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?"
The horizontal black line in the middle is the 0 line and this is the EPO. It goes strongly positive prior to Christmas, then dives towards neutral to negative. This is the ridging to dislodge the cold air
Euro ensemble temperatures, which can NOT be taken literally, show a spike in temperatures before Christmas with colder air following around Christmas Eve and or Day. Remember, all this can change easily.
The GEFS shows basically the same thing.
NO guarantees in weather until after it happens, right? At least we have something to watch.