Severe Weather Season Part 2

Sometimes fall and early winter can produce more severe weather than spring. While severe weather can happen ANY month of the year in Arkansas, we see 2 peaks in Arkansas. The obvious one is spring, the other one is fall into early winter as the jet stream becomes more energized and heads south.

March, April, and May are months associated with some of Nature's most violent weather. While that's typically the case, did you know the 2 worst tornado outbreaks in Arkansas did NOT happen in those months? The worst was January 1999 and the other was June 5th, 1916.

Why am I bringing this up? I want everyone to be weather aware as these fronts start to move through the region. At this time, I don't see any significant severe weather producer, but it only takes one!

We have a low threat today (Sunday) as a new front moves through the state. We have another front late in the week which will need to be watched. At this time, it does not look like the severe thunderstorm chances are significant.

This hasn't been updated in a couple years, but it illustrates quite well the peaks of tornado activity in Arkansas. The spring sees the most with a minimum in the summer. Look at the spike in September! That's mostly from tropical activity. There's another spike in November, but I have seen tornado outbreaks in October. We need to start focusing on our secondary severe weather season.

While timing will change, the Euro has the late week front moving through the state late Friday with very cool air over western Arkansas. While the severe weather threat is low, it must always be monitored with these fronts.

ONLY a model, but WOW! Early afternoon temperatures next Saturday from the Euro.

6AM Monday, October 14th. Lows could be very cool! Too early for specific temperatures, but this would be typical mid October weather.

Possible rainfall amounts with the first front late today (Sunday) into early Monday.

Possible rainfall amounts with the late week front.